I’m a criminal psychologist. Here are my TWO theories about the latest shock development in the Samantha Murphy case

The accused murderer of Samantha Murphy has been escorted by police to a remote stretch of Victorian bushland for the second time as the desperate search for the missing Ballarat mother wears on.

Mother-of-three Ms Murphy, 51, went missing after leaving her Ballarat home, in Victoria’s central highlands, on the morning of February 4, 2024.

About one month later, Patrick Orren Stephenson, 23, son of former Richmond and Geelong AFL player Orren Stephenson was charged with her murder.

Stephenson was recently walked through Enfield State Park, south of Ballarat, with plain clothes detectives in his second excursion from Melbourne Assessment Prison.

Excavators were brought in to dig up an undisclosed area on a pine plantation, 7News reported on Wednesday.

Though police have remain tight-lipped on the investigation, veteran criminal psychologist Tim Watson-Munro said certain inferences can be drawn from the latest update.

Dr Watson-Munro said there are two possible reasons for leading Stephenson on a second walk through.

‘One possibility is that they don’t have a lot of evidence. And, using the colloquial term, it’s a bit of a shakedown,’ he said.

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Mother-of-three Samantha Murphy, 51, (pictured) has been missing since leaving her Ballarat home, in Victoria’s central highlands, on the morning of February 4, 2024

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Patrick Orren Stephenson, 23, (pictured) was charged with Ms Murphy’s murder last year

‘You know, it’s the whole audio visual trip, in many ways, to maybe put pressure on the accused person to give up more information.’

‘You have well-trained people who would be looking for all sorts of cues in terms of [Stephenson’s] body language, what he may or may not have said.’

The second, and more likely possibility, he said, is the police are acting on information not yet known to the public.

‘I think it’s more likely that the police, in fact, do have more information, and they’re acting on that,’ he said, adding it was impossible to know what form any new information may take.

‘And also, I guess, in terms of making making it aware to the public, they’re saying: “Look, we’re still on the tools. We’re still working here”.’

‘I don’t think it’s just for show. I don’t know that, but I don’t think so.

‘There’s obviously some strategy behind it.’

In June of last year, police discovered Ms Murphy’s credit cards, driver’s licence and phone in near-perfect condition on the bank of a dam in Buninyong.

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Veteran criminal psychologist Tim Watson-Munro said police were likely acting on information not yet known to the public in leading Stephenson on a second visit

The discovery is considered by many the most significant public breakthrough in the investigation.

Dr Watson-Munro agreed for two reasons.

Firstly, the unlikely find suggested police had a ‘broader spectrum of information than we’re aware of’.

Secondly, he said it suggested there could be a third party involved – either in the crime itself or its aftermath.

‘It suggests, possibly that [police] are of the view that there’s a third party involved.

‘Not necessarily involved in the commission of the crime, but somebody that may have assisted in terms of disposal of evidence and so on.

‘The phone was in pristine condition, and it was close to the lake. Now the likelihood of that occurring, I think it’s very remote view would normally predict natural degradation of anything like that.

‘My view is that as he was locked up… You would think that, in all likelihood, the phone wasn’t taken by the person who was in custody, but someone else.’

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Searches near Enfield State Park in Ballarat have been extensive and ongoing

Asked whether it was by chance the public became aware of the discovery, the veteran psychologist said, when it comes to investigations: ‘There’s no such thing as a coincidence.’

‘[Sharing the breakthrough with the public] builds momentum, but it also potentially puts pressure on third parties if they exist.’

In September, about seven months out from Ms Murphy’s disappearance, Dr Watson-Munro told Daily Mail Australia there was nothing unique about her not yet having been found.

He likened the search among dense tree-cover to ‘finding a needle in a haystack.’

Asked on Friday whether he still felt that way, now 15 months out from her initial disappearance, Dr Watson-Munro said: ‘Absolutely’.

‘Look, everyone wants crimes solved, and there’s a kind of need for immediate gratification, I think, in part it’s a function of true crime films and documentary series and podcasts and so on,’ he said.

‘There’s a solution at the end of the episode, or ten episodes, in but in terms of police investigation, I mean, look at some of the cold cases still that have gone on for decades.’

Asked why Ms Murphy’s disappearance has gripped the attention of Australians well beyond her home town of Ballarat, Dr Watson-Munro said: ‘Because, you know what, there but for the grace of God, this could be my family.

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Detectives are pictured at Buninyong collecting what is believed to be Ms Murphy’s mobile phone last year – a major breakthrough in the now 15-month old investigation

‘You’ve got a woman well respected in the community going for her weekly run, and she’s never seen of, seen or heard of again.

‘That captures the imagination of people, I think.’

Stephenson has denied any involvement in Ms Murphy’s death and pleaded not guilty to the charge brought against him.

Daily Mail Australia does not suggest he knows the whereabouts of her body or that he was involved in her alleged murder.

He is expected to stand trial for murder later this year.

Victoria Police declined to comment given the matter is before the courts.