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The Kansas City Chiefs could lose an integral starter in 2025 NFL free agency.

Year after year, it’s become more and more difficult for the Kansas City Chiefs to retain all of their top free agents. That’s the cost of sustained success in an industry like the NFL.

According to ESPN NFL insider Jeremy Fowler, the chatter around the league hints that starting right guard Trey Smith could become that key departure in 2025. Fowler relayed “predictions” from various anonymous executives and talent evaluators on January 21, and one of them involved Smith and the Chiefs.

“[The Chicago] Bears will sign Trey Smith in free agency,” the prediction read. Along with the following explanation from Fowler:

Chicago is all-in on improving its offense with the hiring of Ben Johnson as head coach. High on general manger Ryan Poles’ list of improvements will be an underachieving offensive line. Chiefs free agent guard Trey Smith could be an immediate fit.

“They need help there at guard after the Nate Davis fiasco, and Trey is far and away the best option,” an NFL personnel evaluator said. “And they probably need more than him.”

Johnson’s offense is well assembled at the skill positions with tight end Cole Kmet, running back D’Andre Swift and wide receivers DJ Moore and Rome Odunze. But the offensive line was a major problem and will be addressed.

Fowler failed to mention the connection between Poles and the KC organization, but many diehard supporters will remember that the former Chiefs front office executive worked his way up the ranks in Kansas City since the start of Scott Pioli’s general manager tenure in 2009 — and then through all of John Dorsey’s time as GM and a portion of Brett Veach’s current regime.

Poles was last with the Chiefs in 2021, serving as the Executive Director of Player Personnel under Veach.

Chiefs RG Trey Smith Expected to ‘Reset the Market’ at Guard

For some time now, it’s been known that Smith is going to get paid in 2025 — and paid handsomely.

On January 17, former sports agent Joel Corry voiced his opinion on just how much Smith could make when asked about a few of the Chiefs’ impending free agents.

“I’m expecting Trey Smith to reset the OG market that Landon Dickerson currently tops at $21M per year,” Corry responded confidently.

He also noted that veteran safety Justin Reid “could be near the same [salary] territory as his current deal” and that linebacker Nick Bolton “probably took note of Patrick Queen’s $41M [contract] over 3 years.” Although Corry did add that “off ball LBs [like Bolton] are hit or miss as UFAs.”

Either way, his thoughts on Smith are somewhat concerning.

The Chiefs are estimated to have just over $11.5 million in available cap space in 2025, according to Over the Cap. That means in order to re-sign Smith at — let’s say — $22 million per year, Veach might have to do something drastic, and then you have to weigh whether or not keeping the 25-year-old guard is even worth it.

NFL Writer Suggests Cutting Chiefs LG/LT Joe Thuney in Order to Keep Trey Smith

In 2024, the Chiefs traded cornerback L’Jarius Sneed so that they could re-sign superstar defensive lineman Chris Jones. Could a similar trade-off occur in 2025?

On January 20, Bleacher Report’s Alex Ballentine suggested the idea of releasing starting left guard and part-time left tackle Joe Thuney in order to extend Smith.

“Trey Smith, Creed Humphrey and Joe Thuney are among the highest-regarded players at their positions,” Ballentine wrote. “But it’s hard to envision the team retaining all three of them after this offseason.”

“The team already handed Humphrey a lucrative extension, Smith is set to hit free agency and Thuney carries the fourth-highest cap hit on the team right now,” the analyst went on. “One possible solution is to part ways with Thuney to clear up the cap space they’ll need to sign Smith. Thuney has just one year left on his deal, and they can create $16 million in 2025 cap space with a $10.9 million dead-cap charge by releasing him before June 1.”

Ballentine concluded that this “would allow [the Chiefs] to keep the duo of Smith and Humphrey together for a long time.” But on the flip side, then you sacrifice the ever-reliable Thuney.

Of course, if Kansas City is under the impression that Thuney could retire in the coming seasons, this exchange could be worthwhile. Or perhaps there’s a lucrative way to bring down Thuney’s cap number as he plays out his final years in the NFL.

Another avenue could involve superstar tight end Travis Kelce — who might offer cap relief via extension or retirement.

At the very least, Chiefs fans should have confidence that Veach is looking at this situation from all angles, considering his regime’s emphasis on strengthening and preserving the offensive line.

Michael Obermuller covers the NFL and NHL for Heavy.com, where he began writing in 2021. His areas of focus include the Kansas City Chiefs, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers and Miami Dolphins, as well as the New York Rangers and New York Islanders. An NYC area native and Quinnipiac graduate, his previous bylines include FanDuel’s The Duel, King Fantasy Sports and Pro Football Mania. More about Michael Obermuller