The Voice would like us to believe that the winner of Season 25 all comes down to the performances that the Top 5 give during Monday’s Finals (airing on NBC at 8/7c). The contestant who shines the brightest is supposed to claim the title. But it ain’t necessarily so.

If like me, you’ve been watching the long-running sing-off for a while, you know that sure, the contenders who both razzle and dazzle with their last numbers improve their chances of emerging victorious. But by the time the finale rolls around, most of us have already picked “our” contestant.

The Voice’s Best Performances of All Time, Ranked: The Good, the Badass and the Downright Amazing

For me, it’s Team John Legend’s Nathan Chester. A crowd-pleasing showman, he’s got charisma to burn and a Swiss Army knife of a voice. (It can do anything!) Hell would have to freeze over and get thrown in a blender to make a red-hot smoothie before I’d switch my allegiance to another singer.

So, since we’re all largely settled on our picks, we can probably safely predict who will be named Season 25’s winner no matter what happens Monday. Let’s find out. At least I can’t be any further off than I was last time around! Looking at Voice trends over the seasons as well as clues gleaned from this season’s voting, here are my guesstimates for the Final Five’s chances of winning.

5. Bryan Olesen (Team John Legend)

Chances of winning: 3%. How come: Singing for the Instant Save the week before the finale is never a good omen. Though Bryan is the only rocker in the competition, and he certainly has his fans, overall he has failed to connect with the audience in as big a way as Season 24’s Huntley.

4. Josh Sanders (Team Reba McEntire)

Chances of winning: 17%. How come: The country vote can never, ever be discounted on The Voice; it’s massive. But Josh will be splitting that vote with a rival — and, more importantly, a rival who has only seemed to gain in confidence as the weeks have rolled on.

3. Nathan Chester (Team John Legend)

Chances of winning: 21%. How come: Nathan blows me away, but the coaches often don’t seem as wowed. In fact, they’ve so loudly sung the praises of the contestant at No. 1 that I’ve pretty much accepted that Nathan will be another Katie Kadan or Kennedy Holmes (obvious winners who lost).

2. Karen Waldrup (Team Dan + Shay)

Chances of winning: 28%. How come: Josh is cruising right along next to Karen in the country lane, but whereas, it feels as if he’s plateaued, her star keeps rising. And I know the reveal of the results is supposed to be in random order, but Karen’s name was the first one called out in the Semis.

1. Asher HaVon (Team Reba McEntire)

Chances of winning: 31%. How come: From the Blinds, Asher was if not the one to beat, for sure one of the ones to beat. Week after week, he’s been consistently stunning. And not for nothing, but even the coach of a competing team has declared him the best singer of Season 25.