The man in this video — recorded just 5 miles from Nancy Guthrie‘s home — is on the FBI’s radar — TMZ has learned — and the timing of the video is critical.
Law enforcement sources tell TMZ … the FBI is lasering in on the man in the video, who is both wearing and carrying backpacks … right around the time of the kidnapping.
The backpack the man is carrying appears to have reflective straps … similar to the one the apparent kidnapper was wearing as he approached Nancy’s front door. It’s unclear if the reflectors are on the shoulder straps or the side of the backpack.
Walmart
TMZ broke the story … the backpack seen at Nancy’s house is a Walmart Ozark Trail Hiker, and that has now been confirmed by authorities.
The man in the new video is trying to enter a locked gate, to no avail. He was recorded on a resident’s Ring camera at 1:52 AM.
Now, when law enforcement held a news conference last week, they said Nancy’s Nest camera disconnected at 1:47 AM … and, at 2:12 AM, the camera software detected a person. The video the FBI released of the man approaching Nancy’s door does not have a time stamp.
TMZ.com
Sources directly connected to the investigation tell TMZ … that video of the man at Nancy’s door was recorded at 2:12 AM — in other words, he’s the person the software detected.
So, the video of the man with 2 backpacks left that scene at 1:53 AM … BEFORE Nancy was kidnapped. IF he is the kidnapper, he would have had 19 minutes to drive the 5 miles, put on his disguise, and approach Nancy’s door.
The FBI says they are actively investigating the video, along with lots of other leads.
The disappearance of Nancy Guthrie, the 84-year-old mother of NBC’s TODAY co-host Savannah Guthrie, has entered its 13th day as of February 13, 2026, with no confirmed sightings or arrests. A recent viral claim alleges that investigators reviewing Ring security camera footage from a location five miles from Nancy’s Tucson home have noted “stunning similarities” in the man’s beard and sharp eyes to her son-in-law, Tommaso Cioni, including a “one frame” that reportedly “left the room speechless.” This sensational assertion, spreading across social media, has intensified scrutiny on the family. However, a comprehensive review of official statements, media reports, and fact-checks reveals no evidence supporting these claims—pointing instead to unsubstantiated online speculation.
Origins and Breakdown of the Claim
The query echoes rumors amplified on platforms like X, Facebook, and Instagram, where users have dissected surveillance footage for perceived matches to Cioni. The specific Ring video in question, captured at 1:52 AM on February 1—19 minutes before activity at Nancy’s Nest camera—shows a man in dark clothing attempting to access a locked gate, carrying a backpack with reflective strips similar to the one in the Nest footage. TMZ reported the FBI is investigating this clip for potential connections, but no official sources mention facial resemblances, beards, or “sharp eyes” linking it to Cioni.
Social media speculation, however, has run rampant. Users on X and Reddit have posted side-by-side comparisons, claiming matches in build (5’10”-6’0″, 230 lbs, chest-heavy), facial hair (mustache and beard), eyebrows, head shape, and even finger bumps resembling rings Cioni wears. Comments like “Eyebrows, facial hair, head shape, body type…it’s Tommaso Cioni” and “Same exact build and facial hair” have gone viral, but these are amateur analyses, not forensic evidence. The “one frame speechless” detail appears fabricated, with no reports corroborating it.
Official Stance: No Confirmed Resemblance or Suspects
Law enforcement has not endorsed any resemblance claims. The FBI’s February 10 release focused on the Nest footage at Nancy’s home, describing a masked, armed individual tampering with the camera—not the Ring clip five miles away. FBI Director Kash Patel emphasized recovering “residual data” from backend systems, but no statements reference facial features matching Cioni. Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos has dismissed “reckless” speculation, including claims naming Cioni as a “prime suspect,” and confirmed no persons of interest have been publicly identified.
Fact-checking outlets like Times Now and Mint have labeled these resemblances as unverified social media theories, with no official substantiation. Experts, including retired FBI agents, note the footage’s low quality makes definitive IDs challenging, and amateur comparisons often overlook variables like lighting and angles.
Tommaso Cioni’s Involvement: Cooperation Amid Rumors
Cioni, a 50-year-old science teacher and musician, was the last to see Nancy alive, dropping her off after dinner on January 31. He and wife Annie live four miles away, and their home has been searched multiple times, with items removed. Cioni has cooperated fully, per sources, and remains in Arizona—debunking flight rumors. His former bandmate, Dominic Evans, was briefly detained but released, further shifting speculation.
Financial motives (e.g., gambling debts) and family disputes have been floated online but lack evidence. The White House even commented on the Nest footage, with President Trump expressing “disgust,” but no ties to Cioni were mentioned.
Latest Case Updates (as of February 13, 2026)
Forensics Progress: A black glove found roadside near Nancy’s home matches the suspect’s in footage, potentially yielding DNA. A forensics tent outside her home suggests ongoing scene analysis.
Ransom Notes: Two demands for cryptocurrency passed without payment; a third note claims the abductor is local and demands Bitcoin for info, but authenticity is questioned.
Searches Expand: FBI canvassing for electronics and footage; human remains found nearby not linked.
Family Pleas: Savannah, Annie, and brother Camron urge tips, maintaining hope Nancy is alive.
Tip Surge: Over 4,000 leads since footage release, but no breakthroughs.
Why These Rumors Persist—and the Risks
High-profile cases like this breed misinformation, especially with family proximity. Experts warn armchair sleuthing can harm innocents and hinder investigations, as seen in past cases like the Idaho murders. The lack of clear facial details in both Nest and Ring footage—due to masks, low light, and blurring in public versions—fuels subjective interpretations.
In conclusion, the “stunning similarities” claim is rooted in unverified social media buzz, not investigator statements. No evidence supports a resemblance to Cioni in the Ring footage, and the “speechless frame” appears invented. Presume innocence until facts emerge. For tips, contact the FBI at 1-800-CALL-FBI or Pima County Sheriff’s Department at (520) 351-4900. The focus remains on finding Nancy safely.
