Who Will Be the Next Pope? First Black or Asian Pontiff or the Cardinal Who Slammed Gay Marriage as a ‘Defeat for Humanity’—Meet the Contenders Shaping the Catholic Church’s Future!

# Contenders for the Next Pope After Francis’s Death

Following the death of Pope Francis on April 21, 2025, at age 88 from a cerebral hemorrhage, the Catholic Church stands at a crossroads as 138 eligible cardinals prepare for the Papal Conclave, scheduled for May 6–11, to elect the 267th pope. Francis, the first Latin American pontiff, reshaped the Church with his progressive stance on migrants, climate change, and LGBTQ+ issues, raising questions about whether his successor will extend this legacy or pivot to conservatism. Speculation swirls around the possibility of a historic first—a Black or Asian pope—or the election of a cardinal with polarizing views, such as one who labeled same-sex marriage a “defeat for humanity.” Drawing on reports from The Daily Mail, The Guardian, Newsweek, and X posts, this article profiles the top contenders, their ideological stances, and the implications for the Church’s 1.4 billion followers, critically examining the dynamics of this secretive election.

The Conclave: A High-Stakes Ritual

The papal conclave, held in the Sistine Chapel, is a secretive, ritualized process where cardinals under 80 vote in up to four daily rounds, requiring a two-thirds majority to elect a pope. Black smoke signals an inconclusive vote; white smoke heralds a new pontiff. Francis appointed about 80% of the 138 electors, tilting the College of Cardinals toward his progressive vision, yet conservative factions remain influential. The Guardian underscores the conclave’s unpredictability, noting that few predicted Jorge Mario Bergoglio’s election as Francis in 2013. The papabile (papal contenders) reflect the Church’s global diversity, with candidates from Africa, Asia, and Europe, each navigating contentious issues like gay relationships, abortion, and Vatican diplomacy.

Leading Contenders: Diverse Origins, Divergent Views

Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines, 67)

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Tagle is a frontrunner this time round and is considered one of the more liberal candidates

Known as the “Asian Francis,” Tagle, former Archbishop of Manila, leads betting markets at 3:1 odds. As pro-prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization, he champions progressive reforms, criticizing the Church’s harsh treatment of gay couples, divorced Catholics, and unmarried mothers, which he says hinders outreach. While opposing abortion rights in the Philippines, he echoes Francis’s focus on social justice and the poor. Tagle’s youth, charisma, and alignment with Francis make him a strong contender, but his liberalism may alienate conservatives. His election would mark the first Asian pope, reflecting Catholicism’s rapid growth in Asia. However, a past Vatican dismissal could weaken his candidacy. X users like @AskPerplexity praise his progressive vision, seeing him as a continuation of Francis’s reforms.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy, 70)

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Parolin has worked closely with Pope Francis but has upset some with his views on China

As Vatican Secretary of State since 2013, Parolin is the “continuity candidate” at 5:1 odds, blending moderation with diplomatic prowess. His role in the 2018 Vatican-China agreement, criticized as a concession to Beijing, has tarnished his reputation among some cardinals. In 2015, he called Ireland’s legalization of same-sex marriage a “defeat for humanity,” a conservative stance that contrasts with his otherwise moderate image. His recent meeting with U.S. Vice President JD Vance, where they discussed migrants and refugees, highlights his diplomatic weight but also underscores tensions with conservative policies. Parolin’s lack of pastoral experience and the China controversy may hinder his chances, but his Vatican insider status and Italian roots make him a safe choice for those seeking stability.

Cardinal Peter Turkson (Ghana, 76)

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Cardinal Turkson, born in Ghana, was the bookies’ favourite at one point when Francis was chosen in 2013. He would be the first black pope

Turkson, a former Bishop of Cape Coast, could become the first Black pope since Pope Gelasius I in the 5th century. At 5:1 odds, he’s a moderate with a strong record on climate change, poverty, and human rights, having served as a peace envoy to South Sudan. On gay relationships, he occupies a middle ground, criticizing harsh anti-LGBTQ+ laws in Africa while respecting local cultural views. His diplomatic skills and African roots appeal to cardinals eyeing the continent’s growing Catholic population, but his age may be a drawback. X posts, including @lancewallnau’s mention of another African cardinal, reflect interest in an African pope, though Turkson’s broader support is evident. Critics note his traditionalist leanings on marriage and priesthood could limit progressive reforms.

Cardinal Robert Sarah (Guinea, 79)

A conservative stalwart, Sarah, born in French Guinea, is another potential first Black pope, though his age reduces his likelihood. He has denounced “gender ideology” as a societal threat and criticized Islamic fundamentalism, aligning with traditionalist cardinals. In 2020, he co-authored a book with Pope Benedict XVI defending clerical celibacy, seen as a challenge to Francis’s authority. A Reddit thread on r/popculturechat warns that Sarah’s election could “set progressive Catholicism back ages,” citing his hard-right views. His vocal conservatism and age make him a long shot, but his African heritage and traditionalist appeal keep him in the conversation.

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy, 69)

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Zuppi was appointed cardinal by Pope Francis in 2019 and is the Vatican Peace Envoy to Ukraine

Archbishop of Bologna since 2015, Zup “‘Italian Bergoglio’” for his focus on the poor and migrants. Appointed a cardinal in 2019 and named Vatican peace envoy to Ukraine, Zuppi is relatively liberal, allowing a church blessing for a same-sex couple in his archdiocese, which sparked conservative backlash. His peacemaking efforts in Ukraine yielded limited results, but his progressive leanings align with Francis’s vision. Zuppi’s Italian roots and pastoral experience make him a compromise candidate, though conservatives may resist his openness to LGBTQ+ issues.

Cardinal Mario Grech (Malta, 68)

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Cardinal Grech has played a key role in advancing Pope Francis’s vision for a more inclusive and participatory Church

As Secretary General of the Synod of Bishops, Grech blends traditionalism with calls for a “new language” in addressing gay couples and divorcees. Seen as a compromise candidate, he’s conservative at heart but supports Francis’s inclusive reforms. His high-profile Vatican role and cross-faction ties bolster his candidacy, but his lack of global recognition may limit his appeal. X posts mention his potential as a bridge between factions, though he’s less prominent than Tagle or Parolin.

Cardinal Péter Erdő (Hungary, 72)

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From the Eastern bloc, Erdo is a deep conservative and has spoken against divorced or remarried Catholics receiving holy communion

A leading conservative, Erdő, Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, is at 6:1 odds. A canon law expert, he opposes divorced Catholics receiving communion and likened taking in refugees to human trafficking during the 2015 migrant crisis, aligning with Hungary’s nationalist stance. His Eastern European perspective and traditionalism evoke Pope John Paul II, appealing to conservatives wary of Francis’s reforms. Critics, including a Reddit user, warn Erdő’s election could bolster Europe’s hard-right, citing his refugee stance. His pragmatic avoidance of direct clashes with Francis strengthens his candidacy.

Ideological Battle: Progressive vs. Conservative

The conclave is a battleground for the Church’s soul, with progressives favoring Francis’s inclusive approach and conservatives seeking a return to doctrinal orthodoxy. Francis’s appointment of 80% of electors suggests a liberal tilt, but The Daily Mail notes conservative resistance, especially on issues like gay relationships and divorce. Tagle and Zuppi represent the progressive wing, advocating compassion for marginalized groups, while Sarah and Erdő champion traditional teachings. Parolin and Turkson straddle the divide, offering moderation but with conservative undertones. Grech’s compromise stance could appeal to a divided conclave.

The debate over gay relationships is central. Francis’s 2023 approval of blessings for same-sex couples, via Fiducia Supplicans, sparked uproar, with African bishops, led by Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, securing an opt-out. Parolin’s “defeat for humanity” comment and Sarah’s gender ideology critiques highlight conservative pushback, while Tagle and Grech push for inclusivity. New Ways Ministry notes Francis’s appointment of LGBTQ+-positive cardinals, suggesting a progressive lean, but conservative cardinals like Erdő remain influential.

Global Implications: A Shifting Church

The next pope will shape the Church’s stance on divisive issues—LGBTQ+ rights, climate change, and diplomacy with powers like China. An Asian pope like Tagle could energize Catholicism in Asia, where the Church is growing fastest. A Black pope, like Turkson, would signal recognition of Africa’s rising Catholic population, though Sarah’s conservatism could alienate progressives. Parolin or Zuppi would maintain European influence, while Erdő’s election could align the Church with conservative political movements in Europe.

The Vatican-China agreement, a flashpoint under Parolin, will be a key issue, with critics like Sarah opposing concessions to Beijing. Climate change and migration, priorities for Francis, may fade under a conservative pope, while Tagle or Turkson would likely amplify them. X posts reflect polarized sentiment, with @PolitPorn88 highlighting the “defeat for humanity” quote to underscore the stakes.

Critical Analysis: Predictability vs. Surprise

Predicting the conclave’s outcome is notoriously difficult. NBC News calls it a “unique electorate,” with past conclaves defying expectations. Bookmakers favor Tagle and Parolin, but Turkson’s African appeal and Zuppi’s progressive credentials could shift votes. Sarah and Erdő face age and ideological hurdles, while Grech’s lower profile may limit his chances. The 80% Francis-appointed electors suggest a progressive edge, but conservative cardinals, emboldened by figures like Sarah, could rally for a traditionalist.

Critically, betting odds and media speculation, as seen in The Daily Mail and Newsweek, may overstate frontrunners’ chances, as conclaves often produce surprises. X posts amplify polarizing figures like Sarah, but their influence may be overstated given the conclave’s secrecy. The China agreement’s unpopularity and the gay marriage debate could sway undecided cardinals, making compromise candidates like Parolin or Grech viable.

Conclusion: A Defining Moment

The Papal Conclave of 2025 will determine whether the Catholic Church continues Francis’s progressive reforms or reverts to conservative orthodoxy. Cardinal Tagle’s liberal vision could make history as the first Asian pope, while Turkson’s moderate stance offers a chance for a Black pontiff. Parolin’s diplomacy and Zuppi’s compassion provide continuity, but Sarah and Erdő’s traditionalism appeal to those seeking a doctrinal reset. Grech’s bridge-building may unite factions. As the world awaits white smoke, the next pope’s identity—whether from Africa, Asia, or Europe—will signal the Church’s direction on inclusion, justice, and global engagement, shaping its role for a new era.