Ever since “Shōgun” made the move to drama series categories at the Emmys, “Fargo” has enjoyed the lead in our racetrack odds for Best Limited Series based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users. But another contender has emerged, and now “Fargo’s” lead doesn’t look so secure. “Baby Reindeer” is on the way up.

Inspired by real events in the life of writer-actor Richard Gadd, “Baby Reindeer” tells the story of a struggling comedian who becomes the target of an increasingly desperate stalker (Jessica Gunning). It’s now one of the top 10 most watched English-language Netflix programs of all time. And it’s a darling of TV journalists, scoring 88 on MetaCritic and cleaning up in the Television Critics Association nominations. So perhaps it’ll be like another recent Netflix limited series, “Beef,” which went from watercooler hit to awards juggernaut.

As of this writing both “Fargo” and “Baby Reindeer” get 4/1 odds of winning the Emmy, which is as close as it gets. The Expert journalists we’ve surveyed are evenly split: six bet on “Fargo,” six bet on “Reindeer.” However, the tide is turning in favor of “Reindeer” among our other elite prediction groups. It has six Editors on its side, compared to four for “Fargo.” It’s got 14 of our Top 24 Users backing it, compared to four for “Fargo.” And it has support from 14 of our All-Star Top 24, compared to seven for “Fargo.”

But we mustn’t discount “Fargo,” the FX anthology series that has earned three nominations for Best Limited Series thus far, winning in 2014. Its fifth season, focusing on a suburban wife and mother (Juno Temple) on the run from a corrupt sheriff (Jon Hamm), was regarded as a “superb return to peak form,” according to Rotten Tomatoes’ critical consensus. And it has already earned nominations at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, Screen Actors Guild Awards, Writers Guild Awards and Producers Guild Awards, showing considerable potential for the awards season ahead.

“Baby Reindeer” premiered in 2024 so it won’t be eligible for any of those awards until next year, but from the looks of things this could be just the start of its awards journey.

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