Three of the predicted five Best Limited Series Emmy nominees — “Lessons in Chemistry,” “Shōgun” and “Masters of the Air” — are new shows, while the other two are, well, not. “Fargo,” in first place in the odds,” and “True Detective: Night Country,” in third, are competing with their respective fifth and fourth seasons. Both Emmy-winning shows, the anthology series debuted within months of each other in 2014, and if they both make the cut, it’ll be the very first time they’ll go head to head in a series race, 10 years late.

A decade ago, the shows could’ve — and should’ve — collided at the Emmys. Starring Matthew McConaughey and Woody Harrelson, “True Detective” debuted that January on HBO to great acclaim and became a ratings smash. In April, a month after “True Detective” concluded, Noah Hawley‘s “Fargo,” starring Billy Bob Thornton, Martin Freeman, Alison Tolman and Colin Hanks, arrived on FX and immediately quelled concerns that it wouldn’t live up to/stand apart from the Coen brothers’ 1996 film on which it’s based.

But their Emmy battle never came to fruition because while FX submitted “Fargo” in miniseries (as the genre was known at the time; it was renamed limited in 2015), HBO notoriously entered “True Detective” in drama instead. This was done despite “True Detective,” created by Nic Pizzolatto, being conceived as an anthology series, with a stand-alone story every season, and McConaughey confirming backstage following his Best Actor Oscar win for “Dallas Buyers Club” in March (which occurred opposite the penultimate episode of Season 1) that he would not be returning for Season 2. “Season 1 was finite,” he said.

But “True Detective” was such a water cooler hit, starring a freshly minted Oscar winner, that HBO was feeling more than all right, all right, all right about competing in the tougher and more “prestigious” drama genre. At the time, limited series weren’t all the rage they are now — clearly since they weren’t even called limited series back then. From 2011-13, the miniseries and TV movie categories were merged into one category called Best Miniseries or Movie before being split again. 2014 was really the beginning of the wave as more and more big names (read: film stars) started to make pit stops in TV for one-season deals.

HBO’s strategy was met with a lot of “Huh?” at best and “WTF?!” at worst. FX Chairman John Landgraf called the network’s move “unfair” because of “True Detective’s” self-contained seasonal storytelling and the allure that miniseries’ one-season commitment has for A-listers. “My own personal point of view is that a miniseries is a story that ends, a series is a story that continues,” Landgraf said. “To tell you the truth, I think it’s actually unfair for HBO to put ‘True Detective’ in the drama series category because essentially you can get certain actors to do a closed-ended series — a la Billy Bob Thornton in ‘Fargo’ or Matthew McConaughey and Woody Harrelson in ‘True Detective’ — who you can’t get to sign on for a seven-year [regular drama series] deal.”

“True Detective” received 12 nominations, including Best Drama Series and Best Drama Actor bids for McConaughey and Harrelson. “Fargo” earned 18 nominations, including Best Miniseries and acting bids for the aforementioned quartet. At the Creative Arts Emmys, “True Detective” scored four wins and “Fargo” nabbed one. But the script was flipped at the main ceremony. “Fargo” won directing for Colin Bucksey for “Buridan’s Ass” and Best Miniseries, beating “American Horror Story: Coven,” “Bonnie & Clyde,” “Luther,” “Treme” and “The White Queen.”

HBO’s drama gamble for “True Detective” produced just one victory, in directing for Cary Joji Fukunaga and that six-minute tracking shot in “Who Goes There.” Beyond that, “True Detective” didn’t have the juice to take down the juggernaut that was the final installment of “Breaking Bad,” which garnered five awards, including its second straight Best Drama Series statuette. The other series nominees were “Downton Abbey,” “Game of Thrones,” “House of Cards” and “Mad Men.” McConaughey, who was aiming to be the first performer since Helen Mirren to win an Oscar and Emmy in the same year, proved to be no match for Heisenberg (he is the danger after all) as Bryan Cranston won his record-tying fourth Best Drama Actor Emmy.

Did others in the industry feel the same way Landgraf did about a clear-cut anthology series invading an ongoing series race? Maybe. Would “True Detective” have cleaned up the miniseries categories had it competed there? Most likely. No disrespect to “Fargo” and other champs like Benedict Cumberbatch, who won Best Miniseries/Movie Actor for “Sherlock: His Last Vow,” but “True Detective” would’ve been the biggest hit of the field and probably would’ve reeled in more nominations too.

Since then, “True Detective,” which has featured a new cast and new mystery every season, has submitted in limited. But since neither it nor “Fargo” air annually, they’ve only been eligible in the same Emmy cycle one other time prior to this year. That was for both of their second seasons, which aired in the second half of 2015 to vastly different reactions. Season 2 of “True Detective,” starring Colin Farrell, Vince Vaughn, Rachel McAdams and Taylor Kitsch, is widely regarded as the franchise’s worst one. It received just one nomination in 2016, for sound mixing. Meanwhile, Season 2 of “Fargo,” starring Kirsten Dunst, Jesse Plemons, Jean Smart, Patrick Wilson and Ted Danson, did not suffer a sophomore slump and is widely regarded as the show’s best outing. It got 18 nominations, including Best Limited Series, but had the misfortune of going up against the breakout hit that was “The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story” and only won two below-the-line awards.

After going 1-15 for Season 3 in 2017, “Fargo” had its worst Emmy performance for its fourth season with just three crafts bids in 2021. “True Detective” rebounded for its third season in 2019 with nine nominations, including for star Mahershala Ali, but it missed limited series. But their respective fifth and fourth seasons have been critically acclaimed and are returns to form for both series. “Fargo” Season 5, starring Juno Temple, Jon Hamm, Joe Keery, Jennifer Jason Leigh and Lamorne Morris, has posted the series’ best winter awards and guild showing since Season 3. Hamm is the first “Fargo” cast member to receive a Screen Actors Guild Award nomination since Thornton for the first season.

While “Fargo” remains under Hawley’s stewardship, HBO brought in Issa López to replace Pizzolatto as showrunner of Season 4 of “True Detective.” The first season with a subtitle, Season 4 is also the first to be female-led, fronted by two-time Oscar winner Jodie Foster and Kali Reis, and earned the show’s best reviews since the first season. Despite some loud trolls and haters, including Pizzolatto himself, “Night Country” was a ratings hit and HBO promptly green-lit a fifth season with López at the helm once again.

But will Emmy voters bite? The shows’ anthology format invites viewers new and old, but in terms of the Emmys, is there a chance that voters could be over both franchises? Or anthologies in general? Incidentally, a returning anthology series has not been nominated for Best Limited Series since “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story,” which won, and “Genius: Picasso” in 2018. Granted, most of these shows in the interim, including “Impeachment: American Crime Story” and “Genius: Aretha,” were not huge critical and commercial successes. Nevertheless, the groundwork is laid for the deferred “Fargo”-“True Detective” showdown.

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