The fate of the John Wick franchise will be decided exactly one year from today when the first spin-off film, Ballerina, arrives in theaters. Bearing the full title John Wick Presents: Ballerina, this will be the John Wick franchise’s first big-screen spin-off. The TV series The Continental: From the World of John Wick arrived in 2023, but this is the first theatrical release for a John Wick project not headlined by the Baba Yaga himself, Keanu Reeves. It’ll star Ana de Armas as Rooney, a ballerina-turned-assassin seeking retribution for the murders of her family.

Ballerina is being produced by long-time John Wick filmmaker Chad Stahelski and directed by Live Free or Die Hard’s Len Wiseman. It’ll take place between John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum and John Wick: Chapter 4, revolving around the ballet company used as a front for the Ruska Roma crime syndicate (previously seen in the former). This movie will determine the future of the John Wick series, because it will prove whether audiences are interested in seeing John Wick stories without Reeves or if Reeves is integral to the franchise’s success at the box office.

Ballerina Releases In One Year – And May Decide The Future Of John Wick Movies

Are audiences interested in seeing a John Wick movie without Keanu Reeves?

After a handful of delays, John Wick Presents: Ballerina will arrive in theaters exactly one year from today on June 6, 2025, and it’ll determine whether or not this franchise has a future on the big screen. The producers are already planning a spin-off movie for Donnie Yen’s Caine, but Ballerina will be the proper test of the John Wick universe’s big-screen potential and cinematic longevity. If it does well, then Ballerina could easily become its own sub-franchise, perhaps even replacing Reeves’ movies as the main focus (especially since John Wick: Chapter 5 remains unconfirmed, however likely it is).

The success of Ballerina would also mean that the studio would likely want even more spin-offs to follow. If it flops, however, then there’s a good chance it’ll have the opposite effect and halt the development of any further spin-offs. If John Wick: Chapter 5 isn’t confirmed by that point, then it’ll probably become a much more pressing concern for Lionsgate overnight in order to make the most of that I.P. with the reliable part of the brand. The Continental already flopped, so there’s precedent for a John Wick spin-off’s failure, but that wasn’t a theatrical release.

Will Ballerina Be A Success?

All kinds of movies have struggled at the box office lately

It’s a little too early to know for sure whether Ballerina will be a hit or a flop. The studio hasn’t even released a teaser trailer yet, so almost nothing is known about the movie. But it’s possible to speculate on how well it’ll do based on the current box office climate and the performance of similar female-fronted action films in the past. Since it’s introducing a new character, it’s unlikely to pull the kind of numbers that the third and fourth John Wick movies managed with Reeves at the helm.

A fairer comparison would be Atomic Blonde, another John Wick-adjacent female-led action thriller. Atomic Blonde didn’t score John Wick-sized blockbuster numbers at the box office, but it made a respectable enough profit for the studio to consider a sequel. Ballerina might even outgross Atomic Blonde, given its direct link to a beloved franchise and the promise of Reeves cameoing as Wick. However, box office receipts in general have been down recently. Even solid fare with big stars and strong reviews, like The Fall Guy and Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, have disappointed at the box office.

John Wick 5 Will Probably Happen Regardless Of Ballerina

Lionsgate wouldn’t let a guaranteed moneymaker slip through their fingers

Whether Ballerina does well or not, it’s safe to say that John Wick: Chapter 5 will eventually get made. The mainline series reached a natural stopping point with the heroic sacrifice that Wick made in Chapter 4, sacrificing his life to free the High Table of the Marquis’ rule. But Hollywood has never been known to let a franchise end when its story reaches a natural conclusion; Hollywood doesn’t let a franchise end until it stops making money. Reeves-led John Wick movies make far too much money for Lionsgate to let it end at Chapter 4.

But what’s important is how Ballerina’s success or failure will determine the context of John Wick: Chapter 5. It’s either going to be produced as part of continuing a strong, growing franchise – maybe even as a launchpad for even more spin-offs – and could possibly give Reeves a(nother) final send-off, this time for good. Or, it might be that Reeves’ return is heralded as the savior of the failing John Wick franchise, perhaps with greater expectations for a sixth movie.